Fitch raises shipping outlook

Fitch Ratings has revised its 2026 outlook for the global shipping sector to neutral from deteriorating, citing war-driven demand for alternative suppliers and routes that lifted tanker rates, according to Fitch Rating Service.

Tanker shipping has benefitted most from the Iran conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which previously carried over 20 per cent of global seaborne oil. Importers are sourcing crude and products from the US, Brazil and West Africa, raising tonne-mile demand and charter rates, particularly for very large crude carriers.

Container shipping has seen spot freight rates more than double from pre-war levels. Higher surcharges for fuel, war-risk and congestion will limit earnings growth, but revenues are expected to rise. Fitch forecasts container demand growth of about two per cent in 2026, with supply expanding nearly five per cent due to new deliveries.

Dry bulk shipping is less affected, though Capesize vessels are benefitting from increased iron ore transport. Fertiliser exports from the Middle East have been disrupted, but any shift toward higher coal imports could support bulk demand.

Fitch projects global GDP growth of 2.4 per cent in 2026 and 2.5 per cent in 2027, with oil prices expected to fall from US$87 per barrel in 2026 to $65 in 2027. Oversupply risks remain for container shipping, with the orderbook at more than 35 per cent of existing fleet capacity.

The agency said supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions have become dominant drivers of shipping profitability, from Covid port congestion to the Ukraine war, Red Sea disruption and now the Iran conflict. Longer-term risks include rate normalisation and container overcapacity.